But It Could Still Happen! Possibility vs Probability

One of the most frustrating things about OCD is that it doesn't care about likelihood. It doesn’t care about how many times something didn’t happen, how low the risk actually is, or how ridiculous a fear might sound out loud. It only cares about one thing: that technically, it could happen.

That’s enough for OCD to go all in. Once it latches onto possibility, it starts spinning stories and building emotional tension until you feel like you have to act. That’s how you end up checking things over and over, avoiding stuff that feels dangerous, confessing every thought you’ve ever had, or replaying a moment a thousand times in your head to make sure you didn’t miss something.

Let’s talk about why OCD is obsessed with possibility, how this differs from actual probability, and what that looks like in real life. We’ll also talk about how to challenge this pattern so OCD doesn’t get to call all the shots.

The Possibility Trap

Almost anything is technically possible.

You could be struck by lightning on a sunny day. A meteor could fall on your car. Your neighbor’s cat might be an alien spy. None of these are impossible, but you probably aren’t losing sleep over them.

Why?

Because your brain is wired to make judgments based on probability, not just possibility.

But when you have OCD, that filter gets hijacked. Suddenly, your brain is on high alert for anything that could go wrong, no matter how unlikely. But you see… OCD doesn’t offer you certainty. It demands you chase it. So you end up stuck in compulsions trying to eliminate even the tiniest risk.

Example: The Stove

Let’s say you leave the house and wonder, Did I leave the stove on?

A non-OCD brain might go: Hmm, I don’t remember anything weird, probably not. I’ll deal with it later if I did.

An OCD brain might go: But what if I did? What if the house burns down? What if my pets die? What if I go to jail for negligence?

And suddenly, you're turning around to go check. Maybe more than once. Because as long as it’s possible the stove was left on, your brain tells you it’s not safe to move forward.

Possibility Feels More Urgent When Anxiety Is Involved

OCD creates a false sense of urgency. It says, “You can’t risk being wrong.” Even when the actual risk is minuscule.

It doesn’t matter if the chance is 0.00001 percent. OCD will act like it’s 99 percent. And once your body feels the anxiety response, your brain buys into the threat. Cue the compulsions!

But… Compulsions don’t fix the fear. They just buy you temporary relief. Then the fear comes back, stronger, because your brain has now learned, We must treat this unlikely thing as dangerous.

The Difference Between Possibility and Probability

Possibility is about what could happen. It doesn’t care about odds. Probability is about what’s likely to happen based on evidence and past experience.

Here’s an example:

• It’s possible I’ll spontaneously combust while writing this.

• It’s probable I’ll finish this draft, get distracted, and forget to eat lunch.

The difference is obvious in everyday life. We take calculated risks all the time. We drive cars, eat food from restaurants, leave appliances plugged in. We know these things carry some risk. But we don’t obsess over them because we understand they’re low probability.

OCD throws that logic out the window. Suddenly, a one-in-a-million chance is treated like a sure thing.

Social Example: What If They Hate Me?

Say you go to a party and afterward you think, What if I said something weird? What if they all think I’m annoying?

If you have social anxiety, that thought might bring up embarrassment or nervousness. But if you have OCD, it might go further:

• Replaying the conversation over and over.

• Trying to “prove” you didn’t say anything wrong.

• Asking your partner 20 times, Did I seem rude when I said that?

• Avoiding future social situations in case you mess up again.

OCD says, It’s possible you offended someone, and until you’re 100 percent sure you didn’t, you can’t relax.

BUT you can’t ever be 100 percent sure. That’s life. Most people won’t remember what you said. Some might even have thought it was funny or didn’t notice at all. But OCD doesn’t care. It latches onto that 1 percent doubt and blows it up into some huge thing to focus on RIGHT NOW!!

Challenging the Possibility Narrative

So how do you stop OCD from using possibility against you? Here are a few ideas:

1. Call It Out

When the “what if” thoughts start spiraling, say to yourself: This is OCD treating a possibility like a probability.

Even just naming it can help create some distance between you and the thought.

2. Ask the Right Questions

Instead of asking:

• Is it possible something bad will happen?

Try asking:

• Is it likely?

• Have I ever seen this worst-case scenario actually happen?

• What do people without OCD do in this situation?

This helps you re-anchor in reality rather than fear.

3. Accept Uncertainty

This is the hardest part, but the most important: You have to be willing to live with some uncertainty.

There’s no way to guarantee nothing bad will ever happen. But that’s true for everyone. And most people don’t rearrange their lives around every possible danger. You’re allowed to tolerate that sliver of doubt and still move forward.

4. Drop the Compulsions

Whether it’s checking, avoiding, confessing, or mentally reviewing, try to stop feeding the cycle. Let the anxiety ride out without doing the thing OCD tells you will make it go away.

This is exposure work. And over time, it teaches your brain that you don’t have to act on every scary thought.

5. Use Humor (When You Can)

If it helps, exaggerate the thought to the point of absurdity:

• Yes, I left the fridge open for 30 seconds. Clearly, I’ve doomed us all to a yogurt apocalypse.

It won’t work every time, but sometimes it’s enough to break the cycle.

Final Thoughts

OCD thrives on possibility. It doesn’t care if something is likely, reasonable, or even remotely realistic. As long as it could happen, OCD treats it like it will happen unless you do something to stop it.

But you don’t have to live like that.

You’re allowed to make choices based on what’s probable, not just what’s possible. You’re allowed to let a thought be there without solving it. You’re allowed to move forward even when you feel unsure. That’s where freedom starts. Not when the possibility disappears, but when it loses its power over you.

You’re not a bad or careless person for letting go. You’re just a person choosing to live in reality instead of fear.